Lil Baby’s ‘Fresh’ Tracking Toward a 60K First Week — With No. 1 Still in Play

Lil Baby’s new album Fresh is off to a strong start. The 17-song project, released on November 6, is tracking toward a first week of more than 60,000 equivalent album units, according to early forecasts reported by AllHipHop on November 10, with Talk of the Charts in agreement. Those are early first-week forecasts, not final numbers, but they put Baby firmly in the conversation for the top of the chart in his opening week.

The forecast is worth putting in context. Baby’s last album, WHAM, opened with 140,000 units in January 2025, so a 60,000-plus opening for Fresh would be a step down from that debut. His 2022 album It’s Only Me opened with 216,000 units. Those comparisons say more about how crowded and front-loaded the opening-week market has become than they do about a single album’s staying power, and Fresh still has the rest of its tracking week to build.

The tracking week ends on November 12, and forecasts at this stage can move as more data comes in. A No. 1 debut on the Billboard 200 is still possible for Fresh, and if it happens, it would be Lil Baby’s fifth No. 1 album — a milestone that would underline just how consistently he has reached the top of the chart across his career.

Fresh also arrives with a single already making noise. “Dead Fresh” has peaked at No. 18 on the Billboard Hot 100 and reached No. 1 on Urban and Rhythmic radio, giving the album a clear anchor as listeners work through the full 17-song tracklist.

For now, the story is the forecast itself: a solid opening in the 60,000 range, a real shot at No. 1, and a long week of listening still to be counted. This piece will be updated when Billboard publishes the final first-week numbers, and the forecast will be replaced with the confirmed total at that point.